Noooooo! Not like that! I’m not going to put my political affiliation or who I want to win on here. Although, I think it might be somewhere on my blog somewhere. Not that that’s the point of this post. I want to talk about political polls.
I was tweeting about it tonight and I thought the topic would make a good post. I am absolutely fascinated by the whole polling and forecasting thing. I just don’t understand how the whole process is so accurate. To my knowledge, I can’t recall any of these major forecasts being really wrong before. There must be so much research and history put into these calls.
How is it that they can call a state or congressional district for a candidate with like 10% of the precincts reporting? It just boggles my mind.
All I keep hearing is how close the Presidentional election will be, yet all of these forecasts and projections have Obama winning handily. How does this all work?!
I know it’s these peoples’ jobs to follow trends and reports and make these calls, but I’d really like to see some kind of research or writings that really breaks it down for lay folk like me. I’m not really a fan of politics, but I would be interested in learning about how this works. Maybe there’s a “Political Forecasting for Dummies” out there?
Is anyone else as curious about this as I am? Or am I just weird?